Welcome to the blog post #86! Click here to read more from previous posts.
A thought that crossed my mind last week was about decision-making. I reflected on why I often get stuck when making important decisions.
My usual response is, “I don’t have enough information.” While that’s a valid reason, it’s not always true. We don’t live in an ideal world where we have all the information needed to make perfect decisions. Often, time is a luxury we don't have.
So, how do we deal with this?
The psychologist Irvin D. Yalom has a saying: “For every yes, there must be a no, and every positive choice means you have to relinquish others.”
But what happens if we’re not willing to sacrifice other options? We get stuck in decision-making.
Looking closely, they are:
Fear of uncertainties
Fear of consequences
Fear of making wrong choices
Fear of missing out on better opportunities
All these fears contribute to risk aversion, leading to overthinking. Overthinking leads to analysis paralysis, and this ultimately results in no action at all. Often, this indecision leads us to stick with the status quo because it feels like the safest option.
While making decisions doesn’t always guarantee success, doing nothing guarantees stagnation. Understanding why we get stuck in decisions and learning how to escape that cycle is essential for us to move forward in life.
The Hidden Costs of Indecision
A key factor we often overlook is the cost of indecision. We focus so much on the risks of acting that we forget the risks of not acting - the opportunities missed, the momentum lost, and the lingering sense of regret.
Missed opportunities: Delaying a decision can mean losing out on a time-sensitive opportunity. Whether it’s a career move, an investment, or a personal goal, hesitating for too long can mean the window of opportunity closes.
Loss of momentum: Once you’re stuck in indecision, it’s harder to regain forward momentum. You lose the drive and motivation that’s necessary to make meaningful progress.
Regret: Indecision often leads to regret. While it’s common to regret making the wrong choice, regret from doing nothing can be even more painful. At least when you make a decision, you learn something.
Indecision, in its own way, is a choice - often a choice to stay stagnant, which has its own set of risks. Every time I hesitate on any matter for too long, I find it helpful to clearly define the hidden costs of indecision. It provides me with a stronger push to be decisive and take action. In the end, action is what counts.
Understanding the Role of Fear
The primary reason people hesitate is fear. But what are we really afraid of? The root of this fear often stems from the following:
Fear of failure: We dread the possibility of making a wrong choice that leads to failure.
Fear of regret: What if, after making the decision, we regret for not choosing a better option? This fear of future regret can be paralyzing.
Fear of judgment: We often worry about how others will perceive our choices. Will they think we made a foolish decision?
These fears are very human, but they also trap us in a cycle of overthinking. Accepting that there is no perfect decision and learning to embrace the uncertainty of outcomes is the first step toward breaking free.
Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions: Jeff Bezos’ Framework
One of the most effective ways to approach decision-making is to determine whether a decision is reversible or irreversible. Jeff Bezos explained this concept in his Amazon shareholder letter in 1997:
“Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible – one-way doors – and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. We can call these Type 1 decisions.
But most decisions aren’t like that – they are changeable, reversible – they’re two-way doors. If you’ve made a suboptimal Type 2 decision, you don’t have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through. Type 2 decisions can and should be made quickly by high judgment individuals or small groups.
As organizations get larger, there seems to be a tendency to use the heavy-weight Type 1 decision-making process on most decisions, including many Type 2 decisions. The end result of this is slowness, unthoughtful risk aversion, failure to experiment sufficiently, and consequently diminished invention.”
From his explanation, we can think of reversible and irreversible decisions like opening and closing doors.
Reversible Decisions:
These are like doors you can open, walk through, and if you don't like what's on the other side, you can turn around and walk back out. They’re flexible choices you can change later without major consequences.
Examples can be trying a new hobby or choosing a new restaurant. If you don’t like it, you can easily stop or switch to something else.
Even major brands make reversible decisions. For example, Coca-Cola’s launch of “New Coke” in the 1980s was a misstep, but they were able to reverse it, returning to the original formula and retaining their brand strength.
Irreversible Decisions:
These are like doors that, once you walk through, close and lock behind you. You can't easily go back or undo the choice. These decisions have lasting effects.
Take the example of buying a house or making a large investment in a new startup without proper planning. Big financial commitments like mortgages or significant investments are long-term decisions that can’t be easily undone. If something goes wrong, you may face financial hardship or loss.
In the business world, a mistake with irreversible decisions can lead to collapse. Take Kodak, for instance. By failing to embrace digital technology early enough, they made an irreversible decision that led to their downfall.
When Is It Time to Decide?
For irreversible decisions, a natural question arises: how long should I wait before making a decision? Many of us, myself included, have been stuck in a dilemma, afraid to act because the stakes feel too high.
In these situations, I’ve found it helpful to ask myself these key questions:
Will waiting for more information significantly change the outcome?
Is the risk of missed opportunity greater than the risk of acting now?
How long will this opportunity last?
If more information won’t provide significantly better insights or if waiting increases the chance of missing out, it’s time to act. In fact, as Jeff Bezos once said, if you have about 70% of the information, that’s often enough to make a decision. Acting with incomplete data and learning as you go is often better than waiting too long.
Decision-Making Skill
Decision-making, especially under uncertainty, is a skill that requires practice. Most decisions in life and work are reversible, and once you understand the difference between the two types of decisions, you’re more willing to take calculated risks.
There’s a reason for the saying, “No risk, no reward.” The more we train ourselves to act quickly on reversible decisions, the more we free ourselves from the fear that holds us back. Even if things don’t go as planned, we can always adjust, learn, and move forward.
At the end of the day, decision-making is about moving forward. Even when the fear of making the wrong choice feels overwhelming, remember: the cost of inaction is often greater. We don't need perfect information; we just need the courage to act. Once you embrace risk and view decision-making as a skill to be honed, you’ll find yourself making faster, more confident choices.
So, the next time you feel stuck in indecision, remember: it’s better to act and adjust than to do nothing and stay stagnant.
That’s all for today. Till next week!
Cheers,
Do Thi Dieu Thuong